How to use
- Pick the structure: uninsured senior, insured senior, or junior (first-loss). The variant adjustment is applied on top of the layer build-up.
- Set the base rate (SOFR) and each spread layer in basis points. Defaults reproduce our July 2026 adjudication for the reference case: uninsured senior, 180-day tenor, 70% advance rate on soybeans, warehouse receipt plus collateral manager, USD-native and FX-unhedged, distributed to on-chain USDC investors.
- The CDI slider (Brazil’s interbank rate) drives the FX-hedge card: it shows what a fully hedged BRL instrument collapses to in USD—the arithmetic behind most “5–7% in dollars” pitches.
- Cards show the required all-in yield, the spread over tokenized T-bills, the gap versus a 6% pitch, and the full-hedge cost.
- The waterfall chart decomposes the total by layer.
Estimates, not quotes
The base rate and macro anchors are facts; every spread layer is an adjudicated estimate (medium confidence at best—exactly one genuine sub-investment-grade Brazilian agri USD deal print exists in public sources). Our source adjudication rounds the raw sum down to a communicable 12.25% central; this calculator shows the raw sum. Treat outputs as a pricing sanity check rather than investment advice.Reference corridors (July 2026 adjudication)
| Structure | Corridor | Central | Anchor evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uninsured senior, USD-native unhedged | 11.0–13.5% | 12.25% | Credix senior 10.13% expected APY (diversified, hedged) as floor logic; Amaggi BB 5.25% unsecured |
| Senior + credit insurance or development-finance (DFI) participation | 10.5–11.5% | 11.0% | Floor = live insured-pool print at 11% net USDC; net compression 100–200 bps |
| Junior / first-loss, subordination ≈ 25–30% | 18–24% | ~20% | Worked tranche example: senior 10.13%, mezzanine 22.5%, junior 40.5% |
Calculator
Required USD yield for warehouse-collateralized agri debt
Required all-in yield (USD)
12.53%
Spread over tokenized T-bills (3.36%)
+9.17 pp
Gap vs a "6% USD" pitch
−6.53 pp
Full FX-hedge cost (CDI − SOFR)
10.47%/yr
Uninsured senior: source corridor 11.0–13.5%, central 12.25%. A 6% offer under these assumptions underpays by 6.5 pp.
Formulas
Y = r_SOFR + Σ sᵢ (i = 1…6, + variant adjustment)
- Y — required all-in investor yield, % per annum in USD (computed)
- r_SOFR — USD risk-free base rate (SOFR)
- sᵢ — spread layers, bps: credit/counterparty, collateral/warehouse, basis + convertibility, liquidity/lockup, platform/structural, tokenization overlay
- Variant adjustment — insured senior subtracts the net insurance compression; junior adds the tranche premium over senior
h_FX ≈ CDI − SOFR
- h_FX — implied 12-month cost of a full BRL→USD hedge under covered interest parity, %/yr
- CDI — Brazil’s interbank benchmark rate
- A fully hedged BRL instrument yields approximately Y_BRL − h_FX in USD: at CDI 14.15% and SOFR 3.68%, an illustrative 15.5% BRL high-grade certificate collapses to ~5% USD—the arithmetic behind “5–7% in dollars” pitches
C₀ = 1 / AR; ΔP* = −(1 − AR)
- AR — advance rate: loan as a share of initial collateral value (reference case 70%)
- C₀ — initial collateral coverage (1.43× at AR = 70%)
- ΔP* — break-even collateral drawdown: the loan is impaired only if collateral value falls more than (1 − AR), i.e. 30%, net of liquidation costs, within the tenor
Y_jr = (Y_pool − (1 − s) × Y_sen) / s
- s — subordination share of the junior tranche (≈25–30% by convention in Brazilian receivables funds, FIDCs)
- Y_sen, Y_jr — senior and junior tranche yields; thinner subordination pushes Y_jr up sharply
- Y_pool — gross pool yield before tranching