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Stakeholder Sell Pressure Calculator

Simulate sell pressure across five stakeholder groups with allocation, cliff, vesting, TGE, and sell probability — in tokens and USD, with pressure-to-volume ratio.

How to use

  • For each of the 5 groups (Team, Investors, Community, Treasury, Liquidity) set allocation, cliff, vesting, TGE unlock, and sell probability.
  • Set token price and daily trading volume (USD) in the market panel to see pressure in USD and the pressure-to-volume ratio.
  • Expand a group panel by clicking its header. Total allocation is shown in the top bar — a warning appears if it exceeds 100%.
  • Four cards at the top show: peak pressure month, peak pressure in tokens, peak pressure in USD, and the pressure-to-volume ratio (color-coded: <10% green, 10–20% amber, 20–50% red, >50% dark red).
  • The stacked area chart displays monthly sell pressure by group over a 48-month horizon.
  • Experiment with cliff duration and sell probability to find a configuration with acceptable pressure distribution.

Sell-ratio benchmarks (from Vesting Benchmarks)

  • Team: 10–30%
  • Seed investors: 40–80% (60–80% aggressive)
  • Private investors: 40–60%
  • Public investors: 50–70%
  • Ecosystem / Community: 20–40%

Pressure-to-volume heuristics

  • < 10% — healthy, market absorbs unlocks
  • 10–20% — moderate, watch slippage
  • 20–50% — high, expect notable price impact
  • > 50% — critical, unlocks likely to crash price

Calculator

Stakeholder Sell Pressure
Total: 100%
Total allocation exceeds 100%
Market inputs
Peak pressure (month)
0
Peak (tokens)
0
Peak (USD)
$0
Peak / daily volume
0%
Main source

Formulas

TGE_tokens = Allocation × TGE_unlock_%
  • TGE_tokens — number of tokens unlocked on TGE day
  • Allocation — group’s token count (Total_supply × Allocation_%)
  • TGE_unlock_% — fraction of group’s tokens unlocked on TGE day (0 to 1)
Monthly_vesting = (Allocation - TGE_tokens) / Vesting
  • Monthly_vesting — number of tokens unlocked each vesting month (computed)
  • Allocation — group’s token count
  • TGE_tokens — tokens already unlocked at TGE
  • Vesting — vesting period in months (independent of cliff)
Cliff_lump = Cliff × Monthly_vesting
  • Cliff_lump — tokens released as a single lump-sum at month Cliff+1 (accrued during the cliff period)
  • Cliff — cliff duration in months
  • Monthly_vesting — as defined above
  • This matches the OpenZeppelin / industry-standard linear vesting with cliff: at cliff expiry, all tokens accumulated during the cliff vest at once, then vesting continues linearly.
Pressure(m) = Unlocked(m) × Sell_probability_%
  • Pressure(m) — sell pressure in month m (in tokens)
  • Unlocked(m) — number of tokens unlocked in month m
  • Month 1: Unlocked includes TGE_tokens
  • Month Cliff+1 (when Vesting > 0 and Cliff > 0): Unlocked = Cliff_lump + Monthly_vesting (lump-sum + first regular unlock)
  • Months Cliff+2 … Cliff+Vesting: Unlocked = Monthly_vesting
  • If Vesting = 0 and Cliff = 0: all remaining tokens release at month 1 (with TGE)
  • If Vesting = 0 and Cliff > 0: all remaining tokens release as a single lump at month Cliff+1
  • Sell_probability_% — probability of selling unlocked tokens (0 to 1)
Pressure_USD(m) = Pressure(m) × Price
  • Pressure_USD(m) — sell pressure in USD for month m
  • Price — current token price (USD)
Pressure_ratio_% = (Pressure_USD(m) / 30) / Daily_volume
  • Pressure_ratio_% — ratio of average daily sell pressure to daily trading volume
  • Pressure_USD(m) / 30 — average daily sell pressure within month m
  • Daily_volume — daily trading volume (USD)
  • Thresholds (practitioner heuristics, not hard rules): <10% healthy, 10–20% moderate, 20–50% high, >50% critical

Notes on group taxonomy

The calculator’s five groups map to the article’s Vesting Benchmarks sell-ratio categories as follows:

  • Team → Team (10–30%)
  • Investors → aggregate of Seed (40–80%) / Private (40–60%) / Public (50–70%) — pick a single sell-probability that reflects your round mix
  • Community → Ecosystem / Community (20–40%)
  • Treasury → Ecosystem-adjacent (20–40% typical when treasury is actively deployed)
  • Liquidity → not in the article’s sell-ratio table; sell probability here represents LP/market-maker rebalancing

The article’s sell-ratio table does not include a separate “Advisors” category — advisors are typically folded into Team or Private-round terms.

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